Crude oil rallied following the weekend's OPEC+ meeting, but is it the start of a new uptrend?
On Monday, crude oil prices advanced by 2.85%, though they retreated from the intraday high of $63.88. As a result, the market remains in consolidation, trading below the key resistance zone at $65–66. This morning, crude is up 1.3%, reviving bullish hopes - yet it continues to trade within the same consolidation range.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Crude gained nearly 3% on Monday after OPEC+ maintained a modest July output increase of 411,000 barrels per day. This fell short of some market expectations, supporting prices.
- Analysts noted that the escalation in Ukraine, including attacks on Russian infrastructure and military assets, has reintroduced risk into oil markets.
- Tensions between the U.S. and Iran over uranium enrichment also contribute to uncertainty in future oil supply, adding to market volatility.
- A weaker dollar provided additional support to oil prices, as it makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for non-U.S. buyers.
Conclusion
Crude oil surged on Monday, but the rally lost momentum as prices pulled back from the session high. Today, the market is rising again but remains below yesterday’s peak of $63.88. Traders are eyeing the upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report at 10:00 a.m.
I think the market is likely to remain in consolidation, given the upcoming series of economic data and inventory releases.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil rallied after the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend.
- Ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with upcoming economic data, are adding to market uncertainty this week.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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