Crude oil rallies today as OPEC+ news over the weekend supports the bulls - but will the market break out of its consolidation?
On Friday, crude oil pulled back 0.2%, extending its consolidation ahead of the key OPEC+ meeting on Saturday. The group decided to raise output by 411,000 bpd in July, marking a third consecutive monthly increase, aimed at regaining market share and disciplining overproducing members. A larger hike had also been under discussion, according to sources. As a result, crude oil is up 4.8% today, breaking above the $63 level.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Crude oil prices jumped by almost 5% on Monday after OPEC+ confirmed a July output hike of 411,000 bpd, matching the increases from May and June and easing fears of a larger surprise hike.
- Geopolitical pressure persists, with Kazakhstan openly stating it won’t cut production, challenging OPEC+ cohesion. This raises questions about quota discipline and long-term supply balance.
- Technical support levels: WTI broke above $63. Support remains around $60, with deeper support near $58.
Conclusion
Crude oil surged on Monday, climbing almost 4% to break above $63, as markets reacted positively to OPEC+ maintaining its planned July output hike of 411,000 bpd. The move eased concerns about a larger supply increase, which had added uncertainty late last week. With the outcome of Saturday’s meeting now known, some of that risk has been removed. However, the market remains in a broader consolidation, with resistance around the $65–66 level.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil breaks higher following the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend.
- Ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with upcoming economic data, may add to market uncertainty this week.
The full version of today’s analysis - today’s Oil Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the current Crude Oil futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 7-day free trial). Oil Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Stock Trading Alerts.
And if you’re not yet on our free mailing list, I strongly encourage you to join it - you’ll stay up-to-date with our free analyses that will still put you ahead of 99% of investors that don’t have access to this information. Join our free oil newsletter today.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
Recommended for You
- Tax-Optimized Legacy Planning: How Physical Gold IRAs Work in 2025 Learn how forward-thinking investors are protecting generational wealth through tax-advantaged precious metals strategies that function independently of market volatility.
- Volatility Breakout System: Paul's Proprietary Trading Approach Discover how this market-tested trading system has outperformed the S&P 500 by identifying key turning points and generating precise entry signals.