Oil Prices Are Selling Off – Is a Bottom in Sight?

Paul-Rejczak Paul Rejczak Jun 24, 2025

WTI crude continues yesterday’s decline - will it stabilize near $65 again?

 

Crude oil closed 7.22% lower on Monday, and as of this morning, it is trading another 3.3% lower, retesting the key technical level around $65. The market continues to react to ongoing developments in the Israel–Iran conflict.

News of U.S. involvement led to a sharply higher open in crude oil on Monday, with prices reaching a high of $77.13 - just below last Friday’s peak. However, the rally quickly reversed as sentiment shifted, extending what remains a relatively volatile consolidation phase.

With Middle East tensions appearing to cool, investor focus is shifting to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress starting today (10:00 a.m.). Markets are looking for clues on future rate moves amid economic uncertainty.

Powell is expected to defend the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, even as President Trump pressures for a significant reduction of 2 to 3 percentage points. The Fed remains concerned about Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda and its impact on inflation and growth.

For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:

  • Oil prices slumped to a two-week low as ceasefire optimism between Israel and Iran reduced concerns over supply disruptions.
  • Despite the ceasefire announcement, President Trump accused both Israel and Iran of violating the agreement, expressing frustration with Israel’s retaliatory strikes. Iran denied launching any missiles.
  • The 12-day conflict has triggered extreme oil market volatility. Both Brent and WTI had rallied after the U.S. attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities.
  • U.S. involvement heightened concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flow. Any disruption there could significantly impact global supply and push prices higher.
  • Tuesday’s losses followed a steep sell-off on Monday, driven by muted Iranian retaliation - targeting a U.S. base in Qatar with no reported casualties. Markets viewed the move as a signal of de-escalation.

 

Oil Prices Are Selling Off – Is a Bottom in Sight? - Image 1

 

Daily Chart: Pullback from Above $75

Crude oil accelerated last week and looked set to continue its rally on Monday. However, a wave of profit-taking quickly set in, as signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict dampened bullish momentum.

Key support is near $65, marked by previous local highs. While the market reached its highest level since January on Friday, it still remains below the early January highs.

Oil Prices Are Selling Off – Is a Bottom in Sight? - Image 2

 

Conclusion

Crude oil gave back much of its recent gains on Monday and extended the decline today, dropping to a low of around $64.40. This reinforces the idea that bulls face significant medium-term resistance in the $75–$80 zone.

Volatility is likely to continue, and the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.


For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Crude oil prices continue to decline amid signs of potential Middle East de-escalation.
  • The ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with economic data, is adding to market uncertainty.


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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist

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