We’re back at the oil station – but no, no to fill the tank. Just like with any good setup, this one needs time to simmer. Let’s break it down.
Daily Chart: Still Stuck Inside the Wedge
Black gold has been moving inside this orange descending wedge for months, but let’s be honest – it hasn’t’ even come close to testing the upper line lately. Instead, we’ve seen a series of lower highs, signaling persistent seller pressure.
On Tuesday, price finally touched the wedge’s upper boundary – but the meeting with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement turned out to be too much. The next day opened with a bearish gap, followed by a sharp drop back below $60.
Today’s open gave us a green gap to the upside, but the context is the key – none of the major resistances has been breached. As it stands, sellers remain in control.
Stochastics are ticking up, but not in a meaningful way. CCI? Still under zero.
So, here’s the big picture:
- As long as we stay inside the wedge – patience.
- Break + close above the upper line of the wedge and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement = game on for longs.
- Closing today’s gap = test of the recent low or even the next green gap
H4: Boxed In & Coiling
On the H4 chart, crude oil is clearly stuck in a tight orange consolidation and… until we see a breakout, either up or down, there’s not much to get excited about.
Yes, both the Stochastic and CCI have flashed buy signals… but with the heavy resistance cluster we discussed on the daily chart still firmly in place, the bulls haven’t really proven anything yet.
If buyers want to be taken seriously, the first step is reclaiming the upper edge of this range. Until then? I’m not convinced.
So, what’s the plan?
No trade is still a position.
The consolidation is a recipe for patience and precision, not premature entries.
- Long bias only valid above breakout (upper line of the wedge + 61.8% Fibo)
- Short setup can only be considered after breakdown below the Nov.19 low of $58.68
Until then – let it play out. Let others guess. We wait. We watch. We know what we’re doing.
Stay tuned.
Anna
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