Will crude oil remain above the key $60 level.
On Monday, crude oil closed virtually flat, fluctuating above the key $60 level. It continues to consolidate amid mixed market signals. Today, oil is trading 0.2% lower, despite a rebound in equities. All eyes now turn to this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that optimism over trade talks is supporting prices, but gains are capped ahead of OPEC+’s Saturday meeting, where a 411,000 bpd output increase is expected.
- President Trump’s delay of EU tariffs until July 9 has eased immediate demand concerns and helped stabilize prices.
- The $60 level remains key support for now, with the next significant support around $58, marked by previous local lows.
Daily Chart: Two Weeks of Fluctuations
After pulling back last week, crude oil prices are stabilizing. Investors are now awaiting key supply data: API Weekly Crude Oil Stock - due Wednesday and Crude Oil Inventories Report - due Thursday (both delayed due to Monday’s holiday).
Weekly Chart: Bottoming Pattern Forming?
On the weekly chart, key resistance is still around $65–66, marked by previously broken lows from 2023 and 2024. This zone will be important as markets respond to ongoing trade developments and broader economic sentiment.
Conclusion
Crude oil is trading sideways this week as the market awaits clarity on supply from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, shifting tariff news continues to influence sentiment, with stocks rebounding from last Friday’s pullback.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil contracts are moving sideways after rebounding from the $60 support.
- Anticipated OPEC+ production increases are dampening bullish sentiment.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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