Crude oil continues to fluctuate around the $60 level — will Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting trigger a clear direction?
Crude oil is extending its short-term consolidation, remaining above the $60 level. It is currently 0.5% lower after a news about a possible larger than 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase in production by the OPEC+ group. Yesterday, it closed 1.46% lower, after a failed attempt at breaking the $62 level.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Crude oil price turned negative after Reuters reported that OPEC+ may consider a July output hike exceeding the 411,000 barrels per day.
- Trump claims China has violated its agreement with the U.S., adding to market volatility and potentially triggering further consolidation in oil prices.
- Technical support levels: The $60 level remains key support, with the next major support around $58, based on recent local lows.
Conclusion
Crude oil pulled back from yesterday’s local high of around $63, indicating that the market is continuing its consolidation. The major uncertainty remains the outcome of Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, making it risky to hold any positions over the weekend.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil continues to consolidate above the $60 support level.
- Expectations of increased OPEC+ supply are capping upside momentum.
- Ongoing tariff-related volatility, particularly from Trump’s comments, is adding to market uncertainty.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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