Will the crude oil price break above its recent highs?
Tuesday’s trading session didn’t change much for the crude oil futures contract, which closed 1.42% higher but remained below the $64 level, retesting Monday’s high. Today, oil is pulling back by 0.3%, further extending its consolidation.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Crude oil remained below key short-term resistance level of around $64 after rallying on Monday.
- U.S. private payrolls rose by only 37,000 in May, signaling labor market weakness and increasing economic uncertainty.
- Geopolitical tensions - including escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict, potential new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil buyers, and stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks - continue to support oil prices.
- U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels last week (API data), suggesting strong pre-summer demand despite broader economic concerns.
Conclusion
Crude oil is trading sideways this morning as markets fluctuate following weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. In my opinion, this is likely to contribute to continued uncertainty in oil prices.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil rallied following the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, but it has been trading sideways since Monday.
- Ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with upcoming economic data, are adding to market uncertainty this week.
The full version of today’s analysis - today’s Oil Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the current Crude Oil futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 7-day free trial). Oil Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Stock Trading Alerts.
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Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
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