Will crude oil break higher amid tariff developments and economic data?
The crude oil price closed 0.88% lower on Wednesday, extending its short-term consolidation below the recent highs near the $64 level. This morning, crude is up 1.4%, once again reviving bullish hopes - yet it continues to trade within the same consolidation range.
For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:
- Oil prices extend their consolidation on Thursday after a prior drop of almost 1%, influenced by rising U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories and Saudi Arabia's decision to cut July prices for Asian buyers.
- U.S. fuel stockpiles increased more than expected, signaling weaker demand in the world's largest economy. This led to a price dip on Wednesday as investors reacted to oversupply concerns.
- Tensions between the U.S. and Iran over uranium enrichment also contribute to uncertainty in future oil supply, adding to market volatility.
- U.S. economic signals remain mixed, with the services sector contracting in May for the first time in nearly a year. Investors are closely watching tomorrow’s jobs data and potential impacts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Daily Chart: Hovering Below $64
Crude oil advanced on Monday and has since moved sideways. The market remains capped below key medium-term resistance at $65-66 and continues to consolidate following the early April sell-off.
Conclusion
Crude oil surged on Monday, but the rally has since lost momentum. Today, the market is still trading slightly below the $64 level. Traders are closely watching the monthly jobs report due tomorrow.
Given the upcoming economic data and ongoing tariff developments, I think the market is likely to remain in consolidation in the near term.
For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Crude oil rallied after the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend but has been moving sideways since.
- Ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with upcoming economic data, are adding to market uncertainty this week.
The full version of today’s analysis - today’s Oil Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the current Crude Oil futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 7-day free trial). Oil Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Stock Trading Alerts.
And if you’re not yet on our free mailing list, I strongly encourage you to join it - you’ll stay up-to-date with our free analyses that will still put you ahead of 99% of investors that don’t have access to this information. Join our free oil newsletter today.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
Recommended for You
- Tax-Optimized Legacy Planning: How Physical Gold IRAs Work in 2025 Learn how forward-thinking investors are protecting generational wealth through tax-advantaged precious metals strategies that function independently of market volatility.
- Volatility Breakout System: Paul's Proprietary Trading Approach Discover how this market-tested trading system has outperformed the S&P 500 by identifying key turning points and generating precise entry signals.