Crude is acting like it wants to test the limits.
Bulls tried to push above the top of that red gap, but the momentum fizzled, and now the bears are snapping back hard. Daily closes are proving way more important than the intraday swings - if you’re trading this market, patience is paying off.
Daily View
Let’s start with the recent quote:
“(…) However, bulls are not fully in control yet.
The key condition for continuation remains clear: closing the recent bearish gap visible on the daily chart. Without that confirmation, the breakout risks turning into exhaustion rather than expansion. (…)”
From today’s point of view, we see that bulls climbed above the upper edge of the red gap but couldn’t close it. That weakness triggered the pullback we flagged earlier.
Black gold returned to previously broken key resistances, but the early signs of bulls’ fatigue let bears crash the party quickly.
Today’s session triggered a decline below the previously broken long-term red trendline and the upper boundary of the black triangle, momentarily stripping bulls of two strong allies. Additionally, daily indicators fired sell signals, which is never a good sign for the bulls.
The most important takeaway? Watch today’s daily close. If bears confirm their strength with a close below both supports, the risk of a deeper pullback - and at least a test of the lower black triangle boundary – will become the most likely scenario.
H4 View
Tuesday’s quote sets the tone for today and let’s start there:
“(…) In practical terms, this means the market is waiting and only a confirmed breakout or breakdown will determine the next directional move.
(…) Bearish scenario
Failure to break higher could trigger a corrective move toward 64.88 (…)
Looking at the above chart, we see that patience paid off again. Those who waited for a breakdown from consolidation captured gains riding the pro-bear scenario (congratulations!).
Next bear target? Almost certainly the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, how the price behaves there could decide the next move.
Indicators are dipping into oversold territory, but remember that today’s drop took crude oil below two key support lines. Until bulls manage to invalidate these moves, bears hold the upper hand.
Again: daily close is king. It will decide the direction for the coming days.
Today’s Takeaway
- Daily close is key: don’t make big moves intraday and watch how the candle closes. This will tell you if bears are truly in control.
- Trade with confirmation: if crude closes below today’s key supports, lean bearish; otherwise, stay cautious.
- Indicators are oversold, not done - even if H4 looks oversold, momentum can carry further, therefore, don’t chase reversals prematurely.
Let the market show its hand before committing.
Anna
P.S. Today’s post is just a fragment of a much bigger picture.
In the full Lab Notes from today, we go several layers deeper - into areas where structure, momentum, and market signals start lining up in a way you don’t see every week.
+ Bitcoin is sitting at a technical decision point (Lab Note #106).
+ Markets at a Decision Point -> full USD Index + Gold + Silver (Lab Note #105).
All of this is fully unpacked in today’s Premium Labs with context, levels, and scenarios that simply don’t fit into a short public post.
If you only follow the free updates, you’ll see what happened.
In Premium, we focus on why it’s happening and what to watch next.
Stay sharp, stay tactical and have a wonderful weekend!
Anna