Crude Oil Attempts to Extend Its Uptrend

Paul-Rejczak Paul Rejczak Jul 08, 2025

Oil prices are edging higher, but will the short-term uptrend continue?

Crude oil gained 2.17% on Monday, despite OPEC+ announcing over the weekend an increase in its production quota. Sentiment improved ahead of anticipated tariff-related developments. However, the market rally stalled after news of President Trump's upcoming 25–40% tariffs on key trade partners, including Japan and South Korea. As of this morning, crude oil is trading flat around the $68 level as investors continue to digest the potential impact.

For oil markets specifically, these developments are worth monitoring:

  • Trump’s executive order extended the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1, but he hinted at potential flexibility. Energy-importing countries like Japan, South Korea, and India could see trade disruptions, weighing on oil demand.
  • OPEC+ announced a 548,000 bpd output increase for August, continuing to unwind the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts initiated earlier this year. A similar hike is under consideration for September.
  • Money managers increased bullish bets on crude ahead of peak summer demand in the U.S., but Commerzbank forecasts Brent could fall to $65 by autumn due to seasonal demand decline and supply growth.

 

Crude Oil Attempts to Extend Its Uptrend - Image 1

 

Weekly Chart: Merely a Rebound

On the weekly chart, crude oil prices are gradually rebounding following the sharp sell-off on June 23–24. For now, this appears to be an upward correction, with potential resistance near the $70 level.

Key long-term resistance remains in the $85–$90 range, while support is around $55–$60, among other levels.

Crude Oil Attempts to Extend Its Uptrend - Image 2

 

Conclusion

WTI crude is unchanged this morning, with the market essentially pausing after gaining over 2% yesterday. The main focus has shifted to tariff-related developments, as news from President Trump continues to hit the wires and influence prices across all markets. Despite negative headlines, including the OPEC+ production hike, oil remains relatively resilient.

For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Crude oil is trading near the $68 level - its highest since June 23.
  • The ongoing tariff-related volatility, combined with economic data, is adding to market uncertainty.


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Thank you.

Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist

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