Crude Oil Accelerates Its Sell-Off – Lowest Since 2021

Paul-Rejczak Paul Rejczak Apr 04, 2025

Is the crude oil starting new downtrend after breaking medium-term supports?

Crude oil lost 4.76% on Thursday after Trump tariff announcement, pulling back to its recent lows and support of around $65-66. However, today, oil price is further tumbling by 7%, breaking lower.

For oil markets specifically, these developments are decidedly bearish:

  • Medium-term support zone of $65-66 has been violated.
  • Potential economic slowdown or recession would significantly reduce oil demand.
  • Trade barriers may disrupt global supply chains and energy flows.
  • Retaliatory measures from affected countries could further dampen economic activity.

Crude Oil Accelerates Its Sell-Off – Lowest Since 2021 - Image 1

 

Conclusion

Crude oil's technical picture has deteriorated dramatically with the break below both $70 and now the $65-66 support zone. The combination of trade war escalation, likely economic slowdown, and increased OPEC+ production creates a bearish environment.

With prices at their lowest since 2021, we may see some technical bounces from oversold conditions. However, the risk/reward ratio does not currently justify taking any positions.

For now, my short-term outlook is neutral.

I think that no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view.

Here’s the breakdown:

  • Crude oil is breaking the important support level of $65-66 today on escalation in the trade war.
  • Price is at its lowest level since 2021
  • In my opinion, the short-term outlook is neutral.
     

The full version of today’s analysis - today’s Oil Trading Alert - is bigger than what you read above, and it includes the current Crude Oil futures contract position. I encourage you to subscribe and read the details today (with a single-time 7-day free trial). Oil Trading Alerts are also a part of our Diamond Package that includes Gold Trading Alerts and Stock Trading Alerts.

And if you’re not yet on our free mailing list, I strongly encourage you to join it - you’ll stay up-to-date with our free analyses that will still put you ahead of 99% of investors that don’t have access to this information. Join our free oil newsletter today.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist